Compare macro scores across all sectors to identify the best investment opportunities
33 stocks
174 stocks
60 stocks
194 stocks
15 stocks
44 stocks
38 stocks
102 stocks
57 stocks
147 stocks
136 stocks
Measures overall economic conditions including interest rates, money supply, and fiscal policy.
Tracks business sentiment, industrial confidence, and durable goods orders.
Analyzes inflation, employment, and industrial production metrics.
Our weighting system combines historical correlation analysis with economic theory to optimize both predictive power and academic validity.
Correlation optimization: Weights are tuned to maximize forward excess return correlations (3, 6, 9, and 12-month horizons) based on decades of historical data. Forward excess returns measure how well each sector outperforms or underperforms the S&P 500 over future periods, ensuring scores predict relative sector performance.
Economic validation: All weights are validated against academic literature and economic theory, ensuring they remain economically sensible and suitable for professional investment analysis.
Understanding what each overall macro score band represents in terms of economic conditions and investment implications. Note: This scale applies only to overall macro scores (1-10), not individual metric scores which have different significance ranges.
Extremely Rare - All economic indicators simultaneously at optimal levels. Requires every category to score 10, which occurs <1% of the time historically.
Very Rare - Exceptional economic alignment with only minor imbalances. Occurs ~2-3% of time, typically during expansion peaks.
Rare - Solid economic momentum with manageable constraints. Occurs ~5-7% of time during healthy expansion periods.
Uncommon - Sustainable growth without major imbalances. Occurs ~10-15% of time during normal expansion cycles.
Moderately Common - Neither accelerating nor decelerating significantly. Occurs ~15-20% of time, represents economic maintenance phase.
Common - Early warning signals emerging, some deterioration. Occurs ~20-25% of time, typically late expansion or early slowdown.
Common - Active economic softening, clear deterioration. Occurs ~15-20% of time during recession transitions.
Uncommon - Active economic contraction or severe stress. Occurs ~8-12% of time during full recession periods.
Rare - Systemic economic crisis with severe damage. Occurs ~3-5% of time during major recessions or depressions.
Extremely Rare - Complete economic collapse threatening system stability. Occurs <1% of time during true catastrophes (1930s Depression, 2008 crisis peak).
Key Insight: The scoring system creates a natural distribution where extreme scores (1-3 and 9-10) are mathematically difficult to achieve, ensuring they only occur during truly exceptional economic conditions. This provides reliable signals for investment decision-making.
Macro scores and metrics usually have a 3-12 months lead time before we see these changes reflected in the markets. This is crucial to understand - today's scores are pre-warning signs of economic conditions and market movements yet to come. Use these signals for strategic positioning rather than immediate tactical moves.